Earth has just experienced one of the most severe wildfire years on record, and a new international report confirms that human-driven climate change is a primary cause of the escalating intensity and scale of these blazes. The “State of Wildfires 2024–25” report reveals that in some regions, severe fire seasons are now 25 to 35 times more likely than they would have been in a cooler world.
Analyzing the Data: A Combination of Models and Satellite Data
The study, combining satellite data, weather reanalysis, and land-surface models, highlights how a convergence of factors — heat, drought, and changing vegetation — fueled record-breaking wildfires from the Amazon to California. Researchers used sophisticated land-surface models to simulate the interaction between climate, vegetation, and fire across the Earth. This involved running thousands of simulations of past fire seasons both with and without the impact of human-driven climate change, and examining models of vegetation growth and decay to understand how these processes contribute to fuel for wildfires.
Record-Breaking Fire Activity Worldwide
From March 2024 through February 2025, wildfires consumed an astonishing 1.4 million square miles (3.7 million square kilometers) – an area larger than India. Several regions experienced particularly dramatic increases:
- Bolivia: Saw its highest total carbon dioxide emissions of the century (771 million tons).
- Canada: Recorded its second year of exceeding a billion tons of CO2 emissions.
- Brazil’s Pantanal region: A vast wetland, had six times the average carbon dioxide emissions.
These increased emissions exacerbate global warming by contributing to greenhouse gases, creating a feedback loop that further increases the likelihood of more extreme wildfires.
A Clear Climate Change Signal
Researchers overcame the inherent complexity of wildfires – influenced by weather, vegetation, land use, and chance – by exploring thousands of different interaction scenarios. Across these possibilities, the conclusion consistently showed that human-driven climate change significantly increased the likelihood of extreme fires and amplified the amount of land burned. According to Douglas Kelley, a land surface modeler at the U.K. Center for Ecology & Hydrology, “the climate signal is unmistakable.”
Devastating Human and Ecological Toll
The 2024 and 2025 wildfire seasons took a tragic toll:
- Loss of Life: More than 200 people worldwide perished, including 100 in Nepal, 34 in South Africa, and 30 in Los Angeles.
- Displacement & Damage: The Southern California blazes alone forced 150,000 evacuations and caused an estimated $140 billion in damages. Fires in Canada’s Jasper National Park caused over US $1 billion in damages, while Brazil’s Pantanal region experienced over $200 million in losses to the agribusiness sector.
- Air Quality Crisis: Fine particulate pollution from fires in Brazil reached up to 60 times higher than the World Health Organization’s safe limits, exposing hundreds of millions of people to toxic smoke.
Monitoring Fires from Space
Satellites like NASA’s Terra and Aqua have become crucial tools for detecting active fires, mapping burn scars, and monitoring atmospheric pollution. This space-based data has directly contributed to the “State of Wildfires” analysis, validating fire-weather models and quantifying the climate change impact. Future reports will rely on even more advanced hyperspectral sensors and next-generation satellites to track vegetation dryness, fuel loads, and ignition events in near real time.
Addressing the Challenge
Researchers are now focusing on understanding what steps can be taken to mitigate the escalating wildfire crisis. Future work will examine the impact of local fire management decisions and identify what strategies are most effective. >The challenge lies in understanding how to build resilience against these increasingly severe fire events and implementing proactive measures to protect communities and ecosystems.
